Peter and I were brainstorming last week, mostly circling around how to charge for expertise when AI makes hourly pricing obsolete.

Here’s the problem: Half the MVPs we used to build can be vibe coded. Half the other half can use a good one shot prompt, some compelling UX, and excellent evals, and can solve problems that used to be only solvable by humans. If it takes me 2 months to deliver an MVP instead of 4, should I charge half as much? (I know, a lot of halves for one whole).

Maybe, if the rest of the industry has the same expertise as I do and can compete directly. Maybe, if I’m charging on hours. But, I think I’m actually now delivering value very few others can. How do I charge for that?

The traditional models are breaking:

• W2 employment: Paid for time and “potential” over 30 years
• 1099 contracting: Paid for deliverables, usually small engagements
• Consulting: Paid by the hour, directly punishing efficiency

None of these capture what AI-augmented workers actually deliver: compressed timelines, specialized knowledge, and outcomes that don’t correlate with hours.

The Dark Side of the Moon Problem

We’re thinking about this, and how to prove we have value. How does one pre-show value that is like seeing the dark side of the moon?

Sometimes, our work ends in failed startups. Because well, startups fail. But perhaps they failed faster with our help, so the entrepreneur could move onto their next thing with new experience. Perhaps we built a piece of tech that solved a real problem for 5 people, but just couldn’t make it into a business. Perhaps we helped a startup avoid a bunch of mistakes that would have ended them sooner.

There’s no way to show the branching versions of the universe that happened when a startup chose to work with us over another shop. But they’re there. They’re real. They’re in the testimonials, how much we know about each industry we’ve touched, the relationships we’ve built with our clients. We’ve become experts at helping real knowledge workers become real entrepreneurs.

Translating that dark side of the moon into value-based pricing is a struggle. We’ll keep you posted on how it’s going.

Five Dimensions of Value

If we start to break down the value we provide outside of hours worked, it gets messy, quick. But here’s one version that looks at value across five dimensions. For ThinkNimble [we’ve taken dozens pre-revenue companies through their seed rounds], that looks like:

1. Knowledge & Learning Value (10-30% premium)

• Multiple hypotheses to test rapidly
• High pivot probability requiring flexibility
• Unknown market dynamics requiring exploration
• The value of preventing 6-12 months building the wrong thing

2. Speed to Market Premium (15-50% premium)

• Racing competitors to market position
• Event/demo deadlines (investor meetings, conferences)
• Seasonal opportunity windows
• Compressed delivery timelines

3. Future Option Value (10-25% premium)

• Platform potential (not just single product)
• API/ecosystem play possibilities
• Multiple customer segment opportunities
• Building flexibility for future pivots

4. Funding Catalyst Value (20-30% of funding target)

• Active investor conversations requiring demo
• Traction proof needed for raise
• Fundable prototype that demonstrates viability
• Typically 2-5% of next funding round target

5. Risk Mitigation Value (10-25% premium)

• High technical uncertainty de-risking
• Regulatory complexity navigation
• First-time founder knowledge transfer
• Strategic insights that prevent expensive mistakes

Traditional Model:

• 400 hours × $150/hr = $60,000

Value-Based Model: So, if we charge on value, not time, where does that leave us?

• Base development: $60,000
• Knowledge premium (+20%): $12,000
• Speed premium (+25%): $15,000
• Option value (+15%): $9,000
• Funding catalyst (2% of $500K raise): $10,000
• Risk mitigation (+10%): $6,000
• Total: $112,000 (1.87x multiplier)

The frame: “You’re not buying hours. You’re buying the learning that prevents building the wrong thing, the speed that captures market timing, and the optionality that enables your next three pivots.” Will that work in the real world? I don’t know. But we are thinking about it, and others who have deep expertise are too. I think we’ll see major changes in outcomes based pricing, especially in tech, in the next 2-3 years.

Related Concepts

• Tour of Duty in the AI Era - How sports-style career mobility enables this pricing model, including how workers negotiate agent development time as part of engagement compensation